Over the past five years, the long-term care (LTC) market has weathered a turbulent journey. From strong pre-pandemic fundamentals, through the sharp disruptions of COVID-19, to today’s near-recovery, the industry is now on the verge of a new growth cycle. In a recent episode of FrameworkFocus, Jason Yablinsky, Chief Financial Officer at SoftWriters, shared his perspective on where the industry is headed, and why today’s financial headwinds may pave the way for tomorrow’s expansion.
Yablinsky reflected on the steep drop LTC facilities faced in 2020, when occupancy fell from nearly 90% to about 78% almost overnight. “We estimate about 250,000 to 300,000 patients exited long-term care facilities,” he explained, citing family decisions, staffing shortages, and delayed construction as key factors.
It took nearly five years for the industry to climb back. “Today, occupancy is back to about 88%—right where it was pre-pandemic,” said Yablinsky. But with facility construction lagging at its weakest pace since 2014, he cautioned that rising demand may soon outpace available supply.
The biggest driver ahead is demographics. “About 10,000 baby boomers are aging into 75 every day,” Yablinsky noted. With this influx, occupancy rates are expected to rise beyond pre-pandemic levels, potentially straining capacity unless new construction ramps up.
At the same time, shifting interest rates could unlock a surge in housing liquidity for seniors. “When interest rates fall, mortgage rates drop, and that reignites housing sales. That unlocks billions of dollars in capital for Boomers to cover higher entrance fees into facilities,” Yablinsky explained. He called this trend a potential “snowball of growth” for the industry over the next five to seven years.
To prepare for this surge, SoftWriters is investing heavily in innovation. The company recently launched Framework Insight, a new analytics platform built on Tableau, and is making significant long-term investments in artificial intelligence.
“We’ve mapped nearly 100 opportunities within our platform where AI can add value, from order entry to delivery,” Yablinsky said. “The efficiency gains aren’t just incremental—they can be transformative. Reduced turnaround times, fewer errors, better compliance, and more staff time for patient-centered care.”
Despite short-term challenges like high borrowing costs and staffing pressures, Yablinsky remains optimistic about the industry’s trajectory. With the right mix of capital, construction, and technology, LTC pharmacies are poised to play a critical role in meeting the needs of a rapidly aging population.
As Yablinsky put it: “Today’s financial constraints may soon become tomorrow’s catalysts for growth.”
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